Aguilar is a scheme-dependent pocket passer who thrived in Josh Heupel's tempo offense but faces serious questions about whether his production translates outside that system. The arm talent is legitimate — he can drive the ball downfield between the numbers with real zip, and his 90.6 PFF passing grade ranked fourth nationally in 2025. But the interceptions pile up in bunches at the worst times, the mobility is virtually nonexistent, and scouts remain haunted by the Hendon Hooker archetype of Heupel QBs who popped in college and flatlined in the NFL. The medical flag — a benign tumor in his throwing shoulder that sapped arm strength throughout the season — adds both context for inconsistency and risk going forward. At 25 years old with a capped ceiling, he's a camp arm or practice squad stash who could surprise if the shoulder is truly clean, but the floor is 'never takes a meaningful NFL snap.'
- Legitimate arm strength to drive the ball downfield, especially on deep throws between the numbers where he posted a 158.3 passer rating in 2025
- Excellent composure and pocket poise — willingly stands in against pressure and delivers while absorbing hits, a trait highlighted by multiple evaluators
- Strong production against SEC competition: third in the conference in passing yards, 67.3% completion rate, 24 TDs in his first year at Tennessee after a compressed offseason
- Quick system learner — successfully mastered multiple playbooks (JUCO, App State, briefly UCLA, then Tennessee) in short timeframes, demonstrating high football IQ and coachability
- Deep ball accuracy between the numbers is a genuine weapon, with nine passes of 50+ yards leading the SEC
- Turnover-prone at critical moments — 10 interceptions with damaging picks in losses to Alabama and Oklahoma, including a pick-six and multi-turnover games against ranked opponents
- Extremely limited mobility: 62 rushes for 104 yards on the season, functionally a statue in the pocket with no ability to extend plays or threaten with his legs
- System-dependence concerns are real — production came almost entirely within Heupel's tempo and RPO-heavy scheme; ability to execute full-field progression reads outside the system is unproven
- Age (turns 25 in June) severely limits developmental upside; ceiling is likely already capped
Same Tennessee system, same profile: big arm, efficient stats in Heupel's scheme, questionable translatable traits outside it, limited mobility, older age. Hooker was drafted in the 3rd round but has not established himself as a starter — Aguilar's projection is the lower-floor version of the same archetype.